In search of future excellence: the information value of bibliometric indicators in predicting doctoral students' future research performance

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In search of future excellence: the information value of bibliometric indicators in predicting doctoral students' future research performance

Type: Article in monograph or in proceedings
Title: In search of future excellence: the information value of bibliometric indicators in predicting doctoral students' future research performance
Author: Lindahl J.Colliander C.Danell R.
Journal Title: STI 2018 Conference Proceedings
Start Page: 448
End Page: 459
Publisher: Centre for Science and Technology Studies (CWTS)
Issue Date: 2018-09-11
Keywords: Scientometrics
Abstract: The purpose of this study was to investigate the predictive value of using bibliometric indicators of scientific performance during doctoral studies to predict who will attain future excellence in a local organizational context. The data consisted of 479 Swedish doctoral students employed at a single Swedish university that completed their studies between 2003 and 2009. We used a probit regression model to estimate the probability for future excellence, operationalized with a citation based indicator. The model included five predictors: publication volume, excellence during doctoral studies, collaboration, age at thesis completion, and gender. Our main results were: (1) an interaction between publication volume and attaining excellence during doctoral studies, indicating that the effect of publication volume on the probability of attaining future excellence is much stronger for the group of excellent doctoral students than for the group of non-excellent students; (2) collaboration and age are significant predictors of future excellence; (3) examining potential gender bias the results were somewhat inconclusive. Male doctoral students had a higher probability of attaining future excellence. However, the effect was not significant (p>0.05). Our main conclusion is that bibliometric indicators has some predictive validity for post-doctoral performance in a local organizational context and that a combination of quantity and quality in doctoral students’ performance generated the highest probabilities of future excellence.
Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/1887/65332
 

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