The states that cried bear? An assessment of Russia’s deniable intervention as a regional threat

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The states that cried bear? An assessment of Russia’s deniable intervention as a regional threat

Type: Master thesis
Title: The states that cried bear? An assessment of Russia’s deniable intervention as a regional threat
Author: Mulder, Freek
Issue Date: 2016-01
Keywords: Russia
Ukraine
Hybrid warfare
War
Little green men
Kazakhstan
Belarus
Estonia
Latvia
Disinformation
Abstract: In this thesis I have conceptualized what is often called hybrid warfare as a deniable intervention: a military intervention by a state using covert forces as well as local insurgents, which have been catechized through pro-Kremlin media, to destabilize an adversary state and allow the intervening state deniability of involvement. The goal of this thesis was to determine if such a deniable intervention could be replicated by Russia in other states and therefore constitutes a regional threat. Four conditions were identified as having an influence on the efficaciousness of a deniable intervention. Consequently an empirical analysis was made to ascertain the extent to which these conditions are present in four cases: Belarus, Estonia, Latvia and Kazakhstan.
Supervisor: Bader, Max
Faculty: Faculty of Humanities
Department: Russian end Eurasian Studies
Specialisation: MA Russian and Eurasian Studies
ECTS Credits: 20
Handle: http://hdl.handle.net/1887/37357
 

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